Forecast: Number of Registered Air Carrier Departures in South Africa

South Africa's number of registered air carrier departures witnessed a generally upward trend from 2013 to 2019, peaking at 248.75 thousand departures in 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic caused a dramatic plunge in 2020 to 88.58 thousand departures. Recovery began in 2021, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 42.43% and 72.46% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. By 2023, departures had rebounded to 257.06 thousand, an 18.14% increase over the previous year.

The forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 shows a steady annual growth rate, with a CAGR of 2.05% and an anticipated total growth rate of 10.69% over the five-year period. This suggests a stable recovery and growth pattern for the airline industry in South Africa in the upcoming years.

Future trends to watch for include:

  • The impact of potential new variants of Covid-19 or other global health crises.
  • Fluctuations in global oil prices affecting airline operating costs.
  • Technological advancements in air travel and associated infrastructure improvements.
  • Regulatory changes in aviation policies both domestically and internationally.
  • Consumer behavior and travel preferences shifts post-pandemic.

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