The nitrogen nutrient balance in China is projected to decrease over the forecast period from 2024 to 2028. Starting at 13.878 million metric tons in 2024, this balance is anticipated to decline to 11.546 million metric tons by 2028. This represents a steady year-on-year decline, with notable decreases of approximately 4.3% from 2024 to 2025, 4.4% from 2025 to 2026, 4.5% from 2026 to 2027, and 4.7% from 2027 to 2028. This consistent reduction translates into a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately -4.6% over the five-year period.
Looking forward, factors affecting this trend include agricultural policy shifts, technological improvements in farming, and environmental regulations. Monitoring these elements will provide insights into whether the decline continues or stabilizes. Additionally, watch for any significant changes in domestic food demand and international market dynamics, as these can influence nitrogen use efficiency.
