Forecast: Popularization Rate of Telephone (Include Mobile Telephone) in China

The popularization rate of telephones, including mobile phones, in China has seen various fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. The initial years up to 2016 experienced gradual increases with some minor declines. From 2017 onward, a more stable growth trajectory has been observed. As of 2023, the telephone penetration rate stands at 134.4 sets per hundred persons.

Year-on-year growth rates from 2022 and 2023 were 2.21% and 1.87% respectively, indicating a slight deceleration. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at 1.3%, showing moderate growth overall.

Looking forward to the forecasted years (2024-2028), the market is expected to show continued but slowed growth with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 0.87%. The overall growth rate during this period is anticipated to be 4.41%.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Potential market saturation indicated by slowing growth rates
  • Adoption of next-generation technologies like 5G impacting penetration rates
  • Emergence of new communication platforms and devices influencing traditional telephone usage