The modal shift potential for long-distance road freight in containers in France stands at 2.64 billion tonne kilometers for 2024. This marks the start of a gradual decline through 2028, where it is forecasted to reach 2.37 billion tonne kilometers. This represents a year-on-year reduction from 2024 to 2025 of approximately 2.65%, and from 2025 to 2026, there is a further decrease of roughly 2.33%. Over the five-year period up to 2028, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) averages a decline of around 2.12% per year.

Future trends to watch for include:

Technological advancements in alternative freight modes, which could impact the competitiveness of road freight.
Government regulations and incentives aimed at reducing carbon emissions, potentially accelerating the shift.
Changes in consumer demand and globalization patterns, which could influence freight volume requirements.