Forecast: Production-Based CO2 Emissions in Egypt

Over the period from 2013 to 2017, Egypt’s production-based CO2 emissions showed a consistent upward trend, culminating in a peak of 218.56 million metric tons in 2017. However, from 2018 onwards, a declining trend began, with the most notable drop occurring between 2018 and 2019 (-8.87%). This decline continued consistently through 2023, where emissions stood at 174.58 million metric tons, marking a notable decrease from earlier years. Forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 suggest a continued, albeit more gradual, reduction in emissions, showing a forecasted five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.81%.

Key insights:- From 2017 to 2023, Egypt's CO2 emissions reduced by approximately 2.03% year-on-year.- Over the preceding five years, the emissions showed an average annual reduction rate (CAGR) of -3.89%.- The forecast for the next five years indicates a 3.98% reduction in emissions.Future trends to watch for include the effectiveness of policies targeting carbon reduction, adoption rates of renewable energy sources, and the impact of economic changes on industrial CO2 emissions. Monitoring these factors will provide a clearer picture of whether the current declining trend in production-based CO2 emissions will be sustained or altered in the coming years.

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