Analyzing the dataset of road passenger transport movements by buses and coaches in Poland, the trend from 2013 to 2023 shows a general decline. The value stood at 25.31 billion passenger kilometers in 2023. Over the past decade, significant fluctuations were noted, particularly between 2019 and 2020 due to the pandemic, where a drastic drop of -46.71% occurred. Recovery followed but remained inconsistent with a -2.58% decline in 2023. The CAGR from 2018 to 2023 stands at -6.03%, reflecting a persistent downtrend over the recent years.
Looking ahead, the forecasted values from 2024 to 2028 indicate a continued decline with an average annual decrease (CAGR) of -1.63%, projecting a total reduction of 7.9% over the five-year period. By 2028, values are expected to drop to 22.85 billion passenger kilometers.
Future trends to watch for:
- Technological advancements in transport efficiency and eco-friendly initiatives.
- Changes in commuter behavior and preferences, particularly post-pandemic.
- Government policies promoting public transport and investment in infrastructure.
- Economic factors influencing disposable income and travel frequency.
