In 2023, the railway transport volume of substances liable to spontaneous combustion in France stood unchanged at approximately 4.0 million tonne-kilometers. Forecasted data from 2024 to 2026 shows a stable volume of 4.0 million tonne-kilometers annually, followed by a decline to 3.0 million tonne-kilometers in 2027 and 2028. Year-on-year variations highlight a consistent regime from 2024 to 2026, and a significant 25% year-on-year decrease beginning in 2027. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this five-year period is negative, indicating an average annual decline in volume.

Future trends to watch:

Changes in regulations regarding the transport of hazardous materials which could impact transport volumes.
Shifts in industrial demand or substitutions for these substances that may affect the railway's role in transport.
Technological advancements that could enhance transport safety, possibly influencing transport preferences and volumes.