The forecasted gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel) output in Italy shows a steady increase from 2024 through 2028, with outputs rising from 31.53 to 32.76 million tonnes of oil equivalent. Assuming the 2023 output was similar to the 2024 estimate, the year-on-year increase from 2024 through 2028 ranges consistently around 1.0% per annum. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over these five years stands at approximately 0.96%, indicating a modest and stable growth trajectory.
Future trends to watch for include:
- The impact of European Union regulations on emissions and how they might shift refinery capacities or demand for traditional diesel.
- The role of technological advancements in refinery efficiency or alternative energy sources that could influence output patterns.
- Economic factors like global oil prices and industrial demand changes that could affect the production scale or profitability.
