Forecast: Number of Commercial Bank Branches in Nigeria

The number of commercial bank branches in Nigeria has exhibited a declining trend over the last decade, decreasing from 5.9 per hundred thousand adults in 2013 to 4.09 in 2023. The year-on-year variation indicates a significant drop in the number of these establishments, with notable decreases in 2014 (-4.92%), 2015 (-11.23%), and 2017 (-6.33%). Temporary growth was observed in 2019 (+11.16%), although this was followed by continued declines.

Looking at the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the recent five years, the number of bank branches has decreased by an average of 1% per year. Future forecasts suggest a continued but slower decline, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.76%, resulting in a projected figure of 3.87 establishments per hundred thousand adults by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Potential impact of digital banking innovations that could further reduce the need for physical bank branches.
• Regulatory developments and their influence on the banking sector's operational strategies.
• Economic factors and their effect on the financial services industry's expansion or contraction in Nigeria.