Forecast: Number of Commercial Bank Branches in Viet Nam

Between 2013 and 2023, the number of commercial bank branches in Vietnam per hundred thousand adults displayed significant variability, characterized by periods of growth and decline. Starting from a base of 3.64 units in 2013, the figure reached its peak at 4.01 in 2020. This was followed by a drastic decline in 2021 to 2.91 units, reflecting a -27.43% year-on-year decrease. The subsequent years showed a rebound, with 2023 recording 3.73 units, marking a modest year-on-year increase of 0.27%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years was slightly negative at -0.99%.

Future forecasts from 2024 to 2028 suggest stability, remaining steady at 3.74 units per hundred thousand adults for the most part. The five-year CAGR is projected to be a nominal 0.05%, indicating minimal growth. This stability hints at a mature banking sector with limited expansion in branch networks.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of digital banking solutions, regulatory changes, and economic conditions. As digital banking continues to rise, physical branch networks may face additional pressures, possibly leading to further consolidation or a shift in banking service models towards more digital platforms.