In 2023, the demand for oranges and mandarins in Kenya stood at 124.0 thousand metric tons. The year-on-year variation between 2022 and 2023 showed a decline of 0.8%, while the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years has averaged at -1.83%. Historical data from 2014 to 2023 reveals significant year-on-year fluctuations, with notable peaks and troughs such as the 46.41% increase in 2015 and the 54.46% drop in 2016. Looking at more recent data, the demand has been on a steady decline since 2018, with an overall decrease of 6.56% projected between 2023 and 2028, reflecting a forecasted CAGR of -1.35%.
Future trends to watch:
- Climate change impacts on local agricultural productivity
- Import competition affecting local demand
- Government policies on agricultural support
- Changing consumer preferences towards alternative fruits
