Between 2014 and 2023, Indonesia’s coconut oil production has shown considerable volatility, falling sharply between 2016 and 2017 before partially recovering in 2018. Despite fluctuations, the general trend has been negative, with production standing at 805 thousand metric tons in 2023, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.62%. Over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) averaged -1.77%, indicating a persistent downward trend.
Looking forward, projections for the next five years suggest a continued gradual decline in production, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.51%. By 2028, production is expected to further decrease to 780 thousand metric tons, marking an overall decline of approximately 2.5% over the five-year period.
Future Trends to Watch For:
- Climate change impacts on coconut yield and productivity.
- Shifts in domestic and international demand for coconut oil.
- Potential technological advancements in coconut farming and oil extraction.
- Government policies and support programs for coconut farmers.
