The prevalence of HIV in South Africa among persons aged 15-49 showed a steady increase from 17.5 in 2013 to a peak of 18.6 in 2018 and 2019. Following 2019, a gradual decline started, with the value reaching 18.1 in 2023. The year-on-year variation data indicate a general decrease in growth rates over the last decade, with recent years showing negative growth: -0.55% in 2022 and 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years was- 0.54%.
The projected data from 2024 onwards suggest a continuing decline, with the prevalence expected to reduce to 17.6 by 2028. This aligns with the forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.45% and a total forecasted 5-year growth rate of -2.22%.
Future trends to watch for:
- Continued investment in HIV prevention and treatment programs.
- Impact of new medical treatments and their adoption rates.
- Changes in public health policies and education programs.
- Socio-economic factors influencing the healthcare infrastructure.
