The analysis of the number of new HIV infections in Indonesia shows a consistent downward trend. The actual data from 2013 to 2023 reveals a yearly decrease, with the number standing at approximately 25.01 thousand persons in 2023. The year-on-year variation hovered between -3.57% and -7.69%, marking efforts in controlling the epidemic. The CAGR over the past five years (2018-2023) was -4.81%, indicating an average annual decline.
Looking at the forecast data from 2024 to 2028, the downward trend is expected to continue. By 2028, the number of new HIV infections is forecasted to be around 20.2 thousand persons, with a projected 5-year CAGR of -3.41% and an overall reduction rate of -15.91% over the period. These figures highlight sustained progress in HIV prevention and treatment initiatives.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of new healthcare policies, advancements in HIV treatment, and prevention methods. Monitoring societal and behavioral changes, awareness campaigns' effectiveness, and funding levels will also be crucial in shaping the trajectory of new infections.
