The incidence of malaria in Nigeria stood at 297.55 cases per thousand persons at risk in 2023. The data shows an overall decreasing trend from 2013 to 2023, with a few minor fluctuations. From 2013 to 2019, the incidence shows a fluctuating but generally declining pattern. Between 2020 and 2023, there is a mix of increases and minor decreases, with a notable peak in 2020. The average yearly decline (CAGR) from 2019 to 2023 is -0.21%.

Future trends to watch for:

The 5-year forecast predicts a slight continuous decline in malaria incidence, with an average yearly decrease (CAGR) of -0.51% from 2024 to 2028.
Potential impact of interventions such as enhanced medical treatments, widespread use of insecticide-treated nets, and changes in malaria transmission due to climate and environmental factors.
Improvements in public health infrastructure and potential shifts in demographic factors that may influence malaria incidence rates.