Over the past decade, Nigeria has seen a fluctuating yet generally declining trend in the number of new clinically diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis cases. From 2013 to 2023, the volume decreased from 33.87 thousand cases to 24.3 thousand cases. The period of 2016 to 2017 marked the sharpest decline with a year-on-year drop of 14.03%. However, later years saw more variability. In 2018, there was a 4.38% increase, while a significant rebound of 24% occurred in 2019. Post-2020, the year-on-year variations stabilized with a steady decline, showing a 1.52% drop from 2022 to 2023.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 indicates an average annual decline of 1.33%. By 2028, the number of cases is projected to reduce further, adhering to a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -1.33%, culminating in an overall 6.48% decrease in volume.
Future trends to watch for include the potential impact of public health interventions, improvements in healthcare infrastructure, and increased awareness of tuberculosis prevention and treatment. Monitoring these factors will be crucial in evaluating whether Nigeria can sustain or even accelerate the decline in pulmonary tuberculosis cases.
