From 2013 to 2023, unmanufactured tobacco production in Canada has shown a clear declining trend, dropping from 28.62 thousand metric tons in 2013 to 13.42 thousand metric tons in 2023. The most significant reduction was seen in 2020, with a staggering 48.32% decline from the previous year, indicating a severe market contraction. Although there was a 63.45% increase in 2021, the overall trajectory continued downward. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years from 2018 to 2023 stands at -8.61%.
Looking forward, the forecasted data suggests a continued decline, with an estimated production of 5.83 thousand metric tons by 2028. The anticipated average annual decline over the next five years is a significant -13.19%, translating to a near 50.71% reduction by 2028 compared to 2023 values.
Future trends to watch for:
• Policy changes around tobacco cultivation and regulations aimed at reducing smoking rates.
• Shifts in consumer preferences toward alternative products such as e-cigarettes.
• Potential economic factors like changes in subsidies for tobacco farmers.
