Forecast: Mortality Caused by Road Traffic Injury in Nigeria

In 2023, the mortality rate caused by road traffic injury in Nigeria was at 19.5 deaths per hundred thousand persons. The observed trend from 2013 to 2023 displays a consistent decline, with the mortality rate decreasing from 22.0 to 19.5. The year-on-year variation over the last two years shows a percentage decrease of -1.49% in 2022 and -1.52% in 2023. Additionally, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at -1.38%.

Key future trends to watch for:

  • The mortality rate is forecasted to continue its downward trajectory, projected to reach 18.0 by 2028 — a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -1.28%.
  • Government policies and road safety initiatives will be critical in sustaining and possibly accelerating this decline.
  • Advancements in vehicle safety technology and improvements in emergency medical response could significantly impact these projections.