Forecast: Number of Commercial Bank Branches in India

The number of commercial bank branches in India, measured in establishments per hundred thousand adults, showed steady growth from 2013 to 2016, peaking at 14.21 in 2016. However, from 2017 onwards, the growth decelerated, with minor fluctuations leading to a gradual decline by 2023, standing at 14.31. Over the past two years, there was a continuous decrease, with a year-on-year variation of -0.96% in 2022 and -0.9% in 2023. The 5-year CAGR for 2023 was -0.21%, indicating a slight annual decline on average.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest a continued decrease in the number of branches. By 2028, the number is projected to decline gradually to 13.82, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -0.53%, and an overall forecasted 5-year growth rate of -2.61%.

Future trends to watch for:

• Impact of digital banking and financial technology (fintech) on branch presence.
• Economic and regulatory changes influencing branch network strategies.
• Consumer behavior shifts towards online banking services.
• Strategic branch consolidations and closures by major banks.