The under-5 mortality rate in China is predicted to decrease consistently from 2024 to 2028, starting at 5.5 deaths per thousand live births in 2024 and declining to 4.0 in 2028. This trend signifies a significant downward trajectory, with annual reductions of approximately 8% from 2024 to 2025, further stabilizing around a steady decline of 5-7% year-on-year over subsequent years. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for this period suggests an average yearly decrease of about 7%.
Looking ahead, it is crucial to monitor factors such as healthcare improvements, policy implementations, and socioeconomic conditions that could impact these forecasts. The effectiveness of China’s public health initiatives and technological advancements in medical care are key determinants of maintaining this positive trend.
