Forecast: Sold Production of Hot-Rolled Bars in Tool Steels in Germany

Over the past decade, the production of hot-rolled bars in tool steels in Germany has experienced significant fluctuations. From 2013 to 2023, the sector experienced a peak in 2015 and subsequent declines. Notably, 2015 saw a robust 20.23% year-on-year growth, followed by a notable decline in 2016. The years between 2017 and 2019 showed moderate stability before a sharp downturn in 2020 at -16.61%. Recent years, 2021 and 2022, revealed volatility with 24.96% growth in 2021 and -13.14% decline in 2022. By 2023, production was 44.918 million kilograms, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.57%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2023 is notably -4.88%.

Future forecasts indicate a continuous downward trend. Starting at 41.689 million kilograms in 2024, the sector is expected to fall significantly to 29.092 million kilograms by 2028. This points to a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -6.94%, translating to a -30.22% cumulative decline over the period.

Future trends to watch:

• Technological advancements could potentially reverse the declining production trend.
• Possible policy changes aimed at bolstering the manufacturing sector.
• Environmental regulations impacting steel production methods.
• Global market dynamics including demand for steel in major industries.