Forecast: Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures in Australia

Out-of-pocket health expenditures in Australia are forecasted to decrease steadily from 2024 to 2028. The data indicate a slight but consistent annual decline in the percentage share of health expenditure directly borne by individuals. In 2024, out-of-pocket expenditures are projected to be 17.2% of total health expenditures, and this share is expected to gradually decline to 16.76% by 2028.

In terms of year-on-year variation, each year observes a decrease, notably from 2024 to 2025 by approximately 0.64%, and from 2025 to 2026 by a similar margin. From 2026 to 2027, the decline is around 0.71%, followed by a slightly smaller decrease to 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the five-year period suggests an average annual reduction of around 0.64% in the out-of-pocket expenditure share. As of 2023, the out-of-pocket expenditure share was slightly higher, suggesting that the current trend is part of a longer-term decline.

Future trends to watch for:

• Increased government spending on healthcare and potential policy changes toward universal health coverage could further reduce out-of-pocket expenditures.
• Advancements in healthcare technology and telemedicine might alter expenditure patterns, potentially reducing some out-of-pocket costs.
• Continued demographic shifts, such as an aging population, which could impact overall healthcare spending and the distribution of expenses.