Forecast: Nominal Crude Steel Production Capacity in China

In 2023, China's nominal crude steel production capacity was 1.14 billion metric tons. The forecast for 2024 shows a slight increase to 1.15 billion metric tons, with minimal growth continuing through 2028, stabilizing at 1.16 billion metric tons. Year-on-year, the increase from 2023 to 2024 is approximately 0.88%, followed by 0.87% from 2024 to 2025. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period is marginal, indicating a plateau in capacity expansion.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Emerging environmental regulations that may impact production strategies and methods.
• Technological advancements in steel manufacturing potentially affecting capacity utilization.
• Geopolitical factors influencing steel demand globally, which may drive capacity adjustments.
• Economic changes within China, affecting both domestic demand and export strategies.