Forecast: Production in Fertilizers Sector in the Netherlands

The production value in the Dutch fertilizer sector has been on a declining trend over the past decade, falling from €2.17 billion in 2013 to €1.64 billion in 2023. The sector saw several year-on-year fluctuations: a sharp -25.24% drop in 2016, modest recoveries in 2017 and 2018, and a consistent decline since 2020. In 2023, the sector registered a -1.81% year-on-year decrease, reflecting ongoing challenges. The 5-year CAGR from 2018 to 2023 stands at approximately -2.01%, indicating a slow but steady decline.

Looking ahead, the forecast for 2024 to 2028 suggests continued contraction with a forecast 5-year CAGR of -1.5% and a cumulative forecasted decrease of -7.26% by 2028, falling to €1.49 billion. Key trends to watch include:

• Regulatory changes and environmental policies affecting production.
• Technological advancements potentially enhancing efficiency.
• Fluctuation in raw material costs impacting profitability.
• Global market dynamics influencing export opportunities and competition.
• Potential consolidation in the sector through mergers and acquisitions to drive scale and efficiency.