From 2013 to 2019, Japan's domestic scheduled air carriers showed a modest but steady increase in cargo ton-kilometres, peaking at 1018.0 million Tonne Kilometers in 2019. The sharp decline of 16.42% in 2020 was a direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The sector rebounded robustly in 2021 with a 15.24% increase, followed by a continued upward trend reaching 1038.9 million Tonne Kilometers in 2022. In 2023, the value stood at 1045.6 million Tonne Kilometers, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.64%. Over the past five years, the CAGR was 0.53%.
Looking ahead, the forecast from 2024 to 2028 suggests a steady increase in cargo ton-kilometres, with a projected CAGR of 0.53%, signaling continued gradual growth. It is anticipated that by 2028, the cargo ton-kilometres will reach approximately 1077.6 million Tonne Kilometers, reflecting a forecasted five-year growth rate of 2.69%.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of technological advancements in logistics and cargo handling, the potential effects of environmental regulations on the aviation sector, and the evolution of e-commerce, which may drive further demand for efficient domestic cargo transport.
