Forecast: Rail Freight Volume in the UK

From 2013 to 2023, the UK rail freight volume generally declined, starting from 22.4 billion tonne kilometers in 2013 to 14.71 billion tonne kilometers in 2023. A critical drop occurred in 2020 at 8.93 billion tonne kilometers, due to the pandemic, followed by a partial recovery in 2021 at 14.75 billion tonne kilometers. However, the volume slightly declined again in 2023. The year-on-year variation highlighted notable fluctuations with significant drops in 2015, 2016, and especially in 2020. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years showed an average decrease of -2.65% annually.

Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a continuing declining trend, with the volume projected to fall to 12.54 billion tonne kilometers by 2028. Over the next five years, the rail freight sector is expected to experience a CAGR of -2.46%, leading to an overall decrease of 11.7% from 2023 to 2028.

Future trends to watch for include potential shifts in economic activities, changes in logistics and supply chain structures, and advancements in rail technology which may influence rail freight demand and efficiency.