Since 2013, China's crude oil consumption has shown a steady upward trajectory, with actual consumption increasing from 48.67 to 79.62 ten million metric tons in 2023. On a year-on-year basis, the growth percentages indicate a generally consistent increase, notably jumping above 6% during the years 2014, 2018, and 2019. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) has fluctuated slightly but remains robust, particularly between 2014 and 2019, demonstrating China's escalating energy needs and industrial expansion.
Over the last two years, crude oil available for consumption saw a year-on-year growth rate of 4.33% in 2022 and 4.11% in 2023. The CAGR over the past five years (2019-2023) stands at 4.51%, aligning with China’s ongoing energy consumption trends.
Looking forward, forecasted data up to 2028 suggests a continuing increase, with projected crude oil consumption reaching 94.86 ten million metric tons. However, the projected five-year CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is 2.77%, indicating a slower annual growth rate compared to previous years. This suggests that while consumption will continue to grow, the pace is expected to moderate slightly.
Future trends to watch for include China's potential shift towards sustainable and alternative energy sources, which could impact crude oil consumption growth rates. Policy changes, global market conditions, and advancements in energy technology will be critical factors influencing future consumption patterns.