Analyzing the historical data, China’s oil production showed a significant decline between 2015 and 2018, with annual production dropping from 4.31 million barrels per day to 3.8 million barrels per day. This period saw average annual declines around 1% to 7%. From 2019 onward, a stabilization and slight upward trend emerged. By 2023, the production was 4.15 million barrels per day, close to the pre-2015 levels. Over the past five years (from 2018 to 2023), the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was 1.75%, signaling a recovery phase.
Future projections indicate a stable yet modest growth in oil production with a 5-year forecasted CAGR of 0.67%. By 2028, production is expected to reach 4.33 million barrels per day, growing by 3.39% from the 2023 level.
Future trends to watch for:
- Environmental policies and their impact on domestic production.
- Technological advancements in oil extraction and processing.
- Global oil market dynamics and their effect on China's production strategy.
- Shifts towards alternative energy sources and how they may influence oil production.