Forecast: New Vehicles Registrations in South Africa

From 2013 to 2023, the new vehicle registrations in South Africa demonstrated significant fluctuations. The highest registration was recorded in 2013, followed by a general decline up till 2020, when the market experienced a dramatic fall. This period included a -59.05% year-on-year drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Post-2020, there was a partial recovery with a notable 69.96% increase in 2022 and a further 13.12% in 2023. In 2023, the registrations stood at 534.13 thousand units.

Looking forward, the forecast indicates a slight annual decline in new vehicle registrations with a -0.18% CAGR from 2023 to 2028, leading to a predicted value of 527.97 thousand units in 2028. Despite this overall decline, key market recoveries observed from 2020 to 2023 should be noted for their role in partial stabilization post-pandemic.

Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of new technologies, such as electric vehicles, regulatory changes, economic and political stability, and consumer confidence in the South African market. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for anticipating shifts in vehicle registration patterns.