The production of coke and refined petroleum products in the US has seen significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. After reaching a high in 2013, the production value experienced a steep decline for several years, bottoming out in 2016. This period witnessed a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of -12.39% in 2016. Post-2016, the sector exhibited signs of recovery with sporadic growth, particularly notable in 2017 and 2018.
The last few years have shown a stabilization phase with milder fluctuations. The most recent data from 2023 indicates a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.46%, bringing the production value to approximately $581.09 billion. The average annual variation over the past five years has been somewhat stable, highlighting a recent five-year CAGR of approximately -1.89%.
Forward-looking, the forecast from 2024 to 2028 suggests a modest but steady growth with a forecasted five-year CAGR of 0.39% and an overall forecasted five-year growth rate of 1.96%. By 2028, the expected production value is projected to be around $593.39 billion.
Future trends to watch for include technological advancements in refining processes, shifts in global energy policy favoring cleaner energy sources, and potential impacts of geopolitical factors. Moreover, the sector will need to navigate the ongoing global transition towards sustainable energy solutions while balancing supply chain challenges and fluctuating crude oil prices.
