The number of practicing physicians in general surgery in France has shown a declining trend over the past decade. After a brief increase from 2013 to 2015, the numbers have been consistently decreasing. By 2023, the density stood at 7.17 health professionals per hundred thousand persons. The year-on-year variation indicates a trend of consistent decline starting from 2016, with a sharper decrease of 0.42% in 2023. Analyzing the last two years, we see a combined reduction of approximately 0.7%. The 5-year CAGR leading into 2023 shows an average annual decline of around 0.39%.
Looking forward, forecast data suggest this downward trajectory will continue, with the number expected to decrease to 7.04 per hundred thousand persons by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR predicts an average annual decline of 0.28%, amounting to a total reduction of 1.4% over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts from healthcare policy changes, retirement rates of aging surgeons, and new medical graduates entering the field, as these factors could influence the availability and distribution of general surgeons in France.
