Rail passenger transport movements in the UK experienced steady growth from 2013 to 2019, culminating at 82.55 billion passenger kilometers in 2019. However, 2020 saw an unprecedented decline of 70.7%, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing the value down to 24.19 billion passenger kilometers. This was followed by a significant recovery in 2021 and 2022 with increases of 27.5% and 65.84% respectively. In 2023, there was a slight decline of 7.48%, leading to a total of 47.32 billion passenger kilometers. The last 5-year CAGR up to 2023 was -10.19%, indicating a notable decline over the period.
Looking ahead, from 2024 to 2028, the forecast indicates a slight annual decline with a 5-year CAGR of -0.08%, resulting in an overall decrease of 0.42% by 2028, bringing the value to 47.07 billion passenger kilometers. This reflects a period of stabilization post-pandemic, though not reaching pre-pandemic levels.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Impact of remote working trends on commuter rail demand.
- Potential increases in fuel prices which could shift preferences back to public transport.
- Government and private investments in rail infrastructure and service improvements.
- Environmental policies that might drive more eco-friendly travel options such as trains.