The volume of goods transported by railways in Japan is forecasted to decline steadily from 17.46 billion tonne-kilometers in 2024 to 16.52 billion tonne-kilometers by 2028. This projected downtrend follows a gradual decrease observed in recent years. In 2023, the volume was 17.69 billion tonne-kilometers.
Year-on-year variation indicates a decreasing pattern:
- 2024 to 2025: -1.37%
- 2025 to 2026: -1.34%
- 2026 to 2027: -1.41%
- 2027 to 2028: -1.37%
Analyzing the average variation per year over the last 5 years (CAGR), we see an approximate decline of 1.40% annually.
Future trends to watch include advancements in rail technology, shifts in major industries relying on rail transport, environmental policies, and competition from other modes of transportation. Monitoring these factors will be essential for understanding the long-term outlook for Japan’s rail freight sector.
