Forecast: International Tourism Receipts in Viet Nam

Over the past decade, Viet Nam's international tourism receipts have exhibited significant fluctuations, reflecting various economic, social, and global health challenges. From 2013 to 2019, receipts generally trended downward, with notable year-on-year variations, including a sharp decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The sector showed a resilient recovery starting in 2021, peaking in 2022 and continuing to improve in 2023. As of 2023, the receipts stood at 3.55 units of exports, reflecting a 12.63% year-on-year increase from 2022. The average yearly variation over the last five years (CAGR) was -1.86%.

Looking ahead to the forecasted period from 2024 to 2028:

• A decreasing trend is anticipated, with the CAGR from 2024 to 2028 projected at -3.62%.
• Receipts are expected to decline by approximately 16.82% over these five years.

Future trends to watch for include potential impacts from global economic conditions, shifts in travel behavior post-pandemic, policy changes, and the development of sustainable tourism initiatives. The rebound of global tourism and strategic marketing efforts will be critical in influencing these projections.