The primary refinery production of copper in China has demonstrated fluctuating growth patterns over the past decade with an initial strong increase. From 2013 to 2019, the average annual growth ranged between 2.71% and 18.14%, peaking in 2013. In 2020, a slight decline of 13.96% was observed but was quickly followed by a robust recovery with a 24.65% year-on-year increase in 2021. Over the subsequent years, the year-on-year growth stabilized, registering increments of 3.28% and 3.11% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. By standing at 8.2781 million metric tons in 2023, the sector has maintained positive and steady expansion.
Looking forward, the forecast indicates a continuous yet moderated growth trend. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3% is expected from 2024 to 2028, resulting in an estimated increase of 12.05% over the five-year span reaching 9.5829 million metric tons by 2028. This suggests a more gradual but stable expansion phase, resonating with the past pattern of normalization in growth rates post robust recovery periods.
Future trends to watch for include technological advancements in refining processes, policy changes influencing production capacities, and global economic factors impacting demand and supply. Additionally, sustainability initiatives and environmental regulations could also play significant roles in shaping the production landscape.
