Forecast: Share of Scientific Publications Among the World's 10% Top-Cited Publications in Ecology in the UK

The share of UK ecology publications among the world's top 10% cited showed a steady trend, with a projection reaching 19.97% by 2028, continuous from 19.95% in 2024. In 2023, data indicated the proportion at 19.94%. This data represents a negligible annual increase under 0.01% until 2028, highlighting stability rather than substantial growth or decline over the short term. The 5-year CAGR suggests a persistent, albeit modest, upward trend.

Future trends worth monitoring include:

  • Potential shifts in research funding or policy changes in the UK affecting publication impact.
  • Technological advancements or collaborative efforts influencing increased citation rates.
  • Global ecological developments impacting the thematic focus of cited research.

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