The analysis of hospital discharges for complications of surgical and medical care in Italy from 2013 to 2023 reveals a fluctuating trend. The number of hospital discharges decreased from 122.7 in 2013 to 120.5 in 2014, followed by a general upward trend, peaking at 132.9 in 2019. A significant decline was observed in 2020, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching a low of 107.0. Recovery began in 2021, with values rising to 128.8 by 2022, and further to 135.0 by 2023.
Key trends and variations include:
- 2013-2014: Decline of 1.79%.
- 2014-2015: Increase of 1.08%.
- 2015-2016: Increase of 1.89%.
- 2016-2017: Increase of 2.82%.
- 2017-2018: Increase of 1.49%.
- 2018-2019: Increase of 2.63%.
- 2019-2020: Decrease of 19.49%.
- 2020-2021: Increase of 8.88%.
- 2021-2022: Increase of 10.56%.
- 2022-2023: Increase of 4.81%.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 stands at 0.84%. For the forecasted period from 2024 to 2028, a consistent growth rate of 0.5% is anticipated, resulting in a cumulative increase of 2.5% over five years, with expected values reaching 139.4 by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of healthcare policy changes, advancements in medical technology reducing complications, and the ongoing influence of public health crises. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for accurately forecasting hospital discharge trends.
