Forecast: Coal Consumption in Vietnam

Vietnam's coal consumption has seen significant growth from 2013 to 2023, rising from 0.72 exajoules to 2.14 exajoules. In the earlier period, high growth years between 2014 and 2019 witnessed substantial increases with peaks such as 33.16% in 2018 and 32.11% in 2019. However, in the more recent years leading up to 2023, the growth has tapered off, with a brief decline observed in 2021 and 2022, followed by a 4.64% increase in 2023. The CAGR over the last five years (2018-2023) has been 6.27%.

Future forecasts suggest more moderate growth, with the consumption anticipated to reach 2.61 exajoules by 2028. The expected 5-year CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is 3.13%, indicating a slower but steady increase compared to the past decade. This forecasted growth rate of 16.66% over the five-year period highlights a more stabilized demand for coal in Vietnam.

Future trends to watch for:

• Global pressure and local policies on transitioning to cleaner energy sources which could further slow coal consumption growth.
• Technological advancements aimed at increasing the efficiency of coal usage and reducing its environmental impact.
• Shifts in industrial activity and energy demand that could affect overall coal consumption.