The UK’s crude oil and condensate production showed a mixed trend from 2013 to 2019, with fluctuations in year-on-year variation but an overall growth from 2015 through 2019. This period peaked in 2018 at 1,000 thousand barrels per day. However, from 2020 onwards, there was a marked decline, with production falling sharply by 2023 to 620.17 thousand barrels per day.
Key variations over the last two years:
- 2022: -11.9% YoY
- 2023: -12.77% YoY
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years was -9.15%, indicating a significant downward trend. Forecasts for the future predict a continued sharp decline, reaching 179.33 thousand barrels per day by 2028.
The forecasted 5-year CAGR is -19.49%, pointing to a massive reduction of -66.18% in production volume by 2028 compared to the 2023 levels.
Future trends to watch for:
- Technological advancements in extraction and production efficiency.
- Shifts in government policies and regulations affecting the oil industry.
- Global oil market dynamics and prices.
- Increasing investment in renewable energy affecting fossil fuel demand.
