Forecast: Tourism Gross Value Added in South Africa

The tourism gross value added in South Africa has experienced fluctuations from 2013 to 2023, with periods of growth and decline. In 2023, the gross value added stood at 3.76. The most significant year-on-year changes include a substantial 39.8% increase in 2019 followed by a 7.54% decrease in 2020 due to the pandemic. Over the last two years (2022-2023), growth has been moderate with year-on-year variations of 1.42% and 1.35% respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years is 6.16%, indicating a generally positive trend.

Looking ahead to the forecast period from 2024 to 2028, the tourism gross value added is expected to continue growing steadily, with a forecasted average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.07%. The overall growth rate for this period is anticipated to be 5.48% by 2028. However, this moderate growth suggests potential sectoral challenges or market stabilizations could be factors to consider.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of global travel restrictions, economic recovery post-pandemic, and new tourism policies that could enhance growth. Technological advancements and South Africa's marketing strategies on a global platform will also be crucial in influencing these trends.