Forecast: Commercial Vehicles in Use in China

The commercial vehicles market in China has shown fluctuating growth over the last decade. As of 2023, the volume of commercial vehicles in use stood at 36.27 million units. Notable year-on-year variations include significant growth in 2014 by 12.47% and a marked decline in 2020 by -14.23%, followed by robust recovery in 2021 with an 18.08% increase. The market has since stabilized, reflected in the 2.86% growth in 2023. Over the last five years, the average annual growth rate (CAGR) registered at 3.18%.

Looking forward, the forecast suggests steady growth, with the volume expected to reach 41.44 million units by 2028. The projected 5-year CAGR is 2.15%, indicating moderate but consistent expansion. Key future trends to watch include:

• Advancements in electric and autonomous commercial vehicles.
• Regulatory changes and their impact on fleet upgrades.
• Economic fluctuations influencing logistics and transportation demands.
• Technological integration driving operational efficiencies in vehicle fleets.