In 2023, the share of U.S. scientific publications among the world's top 10% cited in infectious diseases slightly declined compared to 2024 when it stood at 14.2%. Forecasts suggest a steady decrease to 13.49% by 2028. Year-on-year, this represents a gradual decline: 1.27% from 2024 to 2025, 1.29% from 2025 to 2026, 1.30% from 2026 to 2027, and 1.25% from 2027 to 2028. This steady decrease reflects a negative CAGR over five years.

Future trends to watch for:

Increased collaboration in infectious diseases research, particularly post-COVID-19.
Potential increases in publication volume from other regions which may impact U.S. citation share.
Advancements in new research technologies attracting more global contributions and citations.