Forecast: Number of Payment Transactions by Non-banks in Canada

The number of payment transactions by non-banks in Canada has seen a fluctuating growth pattern over the past decade. Starting at 10.81 billion units in 2013, it experienced steady growth until 2019 with minor fluctuations, reaching 13.32 billion units. However, 2020 saw a significant dip to 11.28 billion units due to the pandemic's impact, followed by a sharp rebound to 14.55 billion units in 2021. By 2023, the transactions stood at 14.38 billion units, marking a modest rise of 1.82% year-on-year and showing a gradual recovery.

The average annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 5 years leading to 2023 was approximately 1.98%, indicating a slow yet positive trend. From 2024 onwards, forecasts predict consistent growth, with the number of transactions expected to reach 15.76 billion units by 2028, achieving a forecasted average growth rate of 1.39% annually over the next 5 years.

Future trends to watch for:

• Technological advancements in payment systems, especially in mobile and contactless payments.
• Increasing adoption of digital payment solutions driven by consumer preference and convenience.
• Potential market disruptions from new non-bank entrants providing innovative financial services.
• Regulatory changes that could affect the landscape of non-bank payment transactions.