Analyzing Nigeria's oil refinery capacities over the past decade, the data reveals a steady increase from 446.0 thousand barrels per day in 2013 to 474.76 thousand barrels per day in 2023. Year-on-year variations indicate fluctuations with notable increases in 2018 (1.11%), 2019 (1.32%), and 2021 (3.26%), while there was a slight decline in 2022 (-0.64%). Over the last two years, the annual growth rates were modest at 0.59% in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years is approximately 0.9%, reflecting a moderate and consistent expansion trend.
Looking forward, the forecast data from 2024 to 2028 suggests a continuation of this trend, with capacity projected to reach 487.54 thousand barrels per day by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR of 0.42% indicates a gradual pace of growth. Future trends to watch for include potential impacts from regulatory changes, investments in refinery upgrades, or the introduction of new technologies which could influence capacity figures. Additionally, fluctuations in global oil demand and domestic policy shifts will be critical to observe as they could affect Nigeria's refinery expansion plans.
