Crude oil and condensate production in Nigeria experienced a steady decline from 2013 to 2023. Production decreased from 2.19 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2013 to 1.3 mbpd in 2023, reflecting significant yearly variations. Notably, the past two years saw an annual decline of 13.26% in 2022 and 3.52% in 2023, signaling persistent challenges in maintaining production levels. The five-year CAGR from 2018 to 2023 stood at -7.49%, indicating an average annual drop in production.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest the downward trend will continue, with production anticipated to fall to 1.07 mbpd by 2028. The projected five-year CAGR is -3.15%, translating to an overall decrease of 14.79% over this period. This forecast underscores the need for strategic measures to reverse the declining trend.
Future trends to watch for:
- Impact of regulatory changes on production volumes.
- Investments in oil exploration and technology upgrades.
- Potential geopolitical developments affecting oil production.
- Shifts towards renewable energy and its impact on crude oil demand.
- Effects of global oil price fluctuations on Nigeria's production strategies.
