The demand for palm kernel oil in South Africa showcased fluctuating trends from 2014 to 2023. Starting at 37.0 thousand metric tons in 2014, it faced a significant drop to 26.0 in 2015, followed by recovery and slight fluctuations until settling at 30.0 in 2023. The year-on-year variations include notable changes, such as a 34.62% increase in 2016 and an 18.86% rise in 2018, countered by notable drops, such as the 29.73% dip in 2015 and 20% in 2017. The overall Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2014 to 2023 is -1.89%, indicating a gradual decline.
Looking into the future, the forecasted demand from 2024 to 2028 continues this gradual decline, with a projected 5-year CAGR of -0.9%, resulting in a decrease from 29.6 thousand metric tons in 2024 to 28.29 by 2028. This suggests that the demand growth rate will slow down further with an overall reduction of 4.43% over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for:
- Impact of alternative vegetable oils and substitutes on palm kernel oil demand.
- Changes in consumer preferences and health trends shifting towards healthier oil options.
- Sustainability pressures and their influence on the sourcing and use of palm kernel oil.
- Economic factors and their effect on the demand for palm kernel oil in the industrial and food sectors.
