Forecast: Passenger Cars in Use in China

Passenger cars in use in China have experienced significant growth over the past decade, beginning with 101.36 million units in 2013 and increasing to 188.68 million units by 2023. The year-on-year growth rates varied, with high double-digit percentage increases in the early years, slowing to single digits in the latter half of the decade. Notably, 2020 saw a sharp decline of 13.33%, followed by a robust recovery in 2021 with a 19.21% increase. The overall Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2018 and 2023 was 4.18%.

The forecast for 2024 onwards suggests a continued but moderated growth trend, reaching 223.19 million units by 2028. This corresponds to a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 2.69%, indicating a gradual deceleration in the growth rate. Key future trends to watch for include the adoption of electric vehicles, regulatory changes, and shifts in consumer preferences towards sustainable and efficient models, which could significantly influence these projections.