Forecast: International Rail Freight Volume Transiting by Rail Throughput in Germany

From 2013 to 2016, the international rail freight volume transiting through Germany saw consistent growth, reaching a peak in 2016. However, 2017 marked a downturn followed by a substantial drop in 2018. The decline continued steeply into 2020, perhaps impacted by global disruptions. In 2021, there was a significant rebound, yet it stabilized with minor decreases in 2022 and 2023, where the value stood at 10.97 billion Tonne Kilometers.

Over the last two years, the year-on-year variation shows slight fluctuations, with 2022 experiencing a modest recovery at 4.74%, while 2023 saw a minimal decrease of 0.48%. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2019 and 2023 was 1.34%, indicating a slightly positive, albeit fragile, growth trend.

Forecasted data from 2024 through 2028 suggests a gradually declining trend at an average CAGR of -0.4%, portraying a forecasted 5-year growth rate of -1.96%. This indicates that the international rail freight volume transiting through Germany is expected to experience a slow yet persistent decrease over the next five years.

Future Trends to Watch:

  • Potential impacts of global economic shifts and supply chain reconfigurations.
  • The influence of policy changes aimed at increasing rail freight efficiency and sustainability.
  • Technological advancements in rail freight operations and logistics.
  • Shifts in international trade agreements or tariffs that might affect rail freight volume.
  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions and their effect on cross-border rail traffic.
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