Forecast: Raw Steel Production in the UK

The UK's raw steel production has witnessed a significant decline over the past decade. Starting from 11.86 million metric tons in 2013, it dropped to 5.71 million metric tons by 2023, representing a substantial contraction. The year-on-year variation for 2023 was a decline of 5.9% while the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years was -5.78%. Between 2022 and 2023, the production fell by 5.9%, indicating continuing downward pressure.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Further declines are forecasted, with production expected to reduce to 3.83 million metric tons by 2028, resulting in a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -6.31% and an overall 5-year growth rate decline of 27.8%.
• Potential interventions or policies from the government to revitalize the steel industry.
• Global steel demand fluctuations and their impact on UK production.
• Technological advancements in steel production aiming to enhance efficiency and sustainability.