The forecast for Gas Oil and Diesel Oil (excluding biofuel) refinery output in the UK indicates a steady decline from 220.99 thousand gigawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to 205.61 TWh in 2028. The year-on-year variation highlights consistent percentage decreases: 2025 forecasts a -1.8% decline, 2026 shows a -1.8% drop, 2027 projects a -1.8% reduction, and 2028 anticipates a -1.8% decrease. Forecasted from 2024, these consecutive decreases depict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately -1.8% over the five years. In 2023, the output stood at 225.83 TWh, establishing a baseline for subsequent years' forecasts.

Future trends to watch for:

Technological advancements in refining efficiency may alter future output levels.
Policy shifts towards sustainable energy could further impact fossil fuel refinery outputs.
Economic changes that affect consumption patterns may influence demand and production.
Global market dynamics, including import/export policies, might affect domestic output.